Gretchen Whitmer goes big for Michigan Democrats as GOP seeks check on power

• Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer stumping for Kamala Harris and Democratic down ballot candidates ahead of 2024 elections
• With Democratic-majority state House on the line, Whitmer highlighting support for reproductive rights, legislative track record 
• Republicans, including former Gov. Rick Snyder, consider House majority fight an opportunity to check Democratic influence

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer isn't on the ballot next week, but her legacy as a no-nonsense Midwest governor who can turn a swing state blue hangs in the balance, as does her ability to tackle key priorities her last two years in office. 

Fresh off a multistate bus tour with fellow Midwest governors, and a national book tour that’s fueled speculation for a future presidential run, Whitmer is closing the election cycle back in Michigan, visiting battleground regions to publicly campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats defending a slim majority in the state House.

Whitmer is a strong campaign surrogate because she has “golden” approval numbers in Michigan, said pollster Richard Czuba,  whose surveys have shown a series of tight races in a state that Whitmer won by more than 10 percentage points two years ago. 

“We’re seeing in polling that women are disproportionately breaking for Democrats right now, and that, I think, is where Whitmer is really an important voice on the trail,” he said. 

The second-term governor grabbed an Oberon with Harris last week at a Kalamazoo bar, where they discussed the importance of Democratic outreach to male voters. On Tuesday, she gave a stump speech at her alma mater, Michigan State University, asking students to turn out for Harris and Democratic US House candidate Curtis Hertel, who is locked in a tough fight with Republican Tom Barrett in the 7th Congressional District. 

Peppered throughout her packed schedule were stops in hotly contested state House districts, which will determine whether Democrats will keep their 56-54 majority or cede control back to Republicans, who held both chambers for the first four years of Whitmer’s term. 

Those years were often contentious, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, when disputes between the Whitmer administration and the Republican-led Legislature frequently ended up in court. 

By contrast, Whitmer’s first year with a Democratic trifecta spurred a flurry of activity in 2023. The new majority worked closely with Whitmer on sweeping LGBTQ rights, abortion and gun reforms while repealing Republican laws like Right-to-Work and passing a massive state budget. 

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“We've been able to get some great things done, but on the slimmest of margins,” Whitmer said during a recent campaign stop Downriver, where incumbent Democrat Jaime Churches is defending her seat in what’s arguably the most competitive state House race this cycle.  

Republicans contend Democratic control has put Michigan on an economic and educational backslide. A GOP majority would “bring some balance back to Lansing” and is well within reach, said state Rep. Bill Schuette of Midland, who is chairing the House Republican effort. 

Whitmer’s predecessor, former Gov. Rick Snyder, had been working behind the scenes to fundraise for House Republicans before hitting the campaign trail in October, telling Bridge Michigan he wants to help put the state “on a positive path and actually be a good role model for the nation.” 

Both parties acknowledge the fight for majority control will come down to the wire: In 2022, Democrats flipped the House by the slimmest of margins, winning a two-seat majority in a year where Whitmer scored a double-digit re-election victory and an abortion rights proposal drove voters to the polls.

Though legislative momentum slowed significantly in 2024 amid a temporary House tie and a busy election year, Whitmer said Democrats still have a lengthy to-do list and would have a harder time building on their successes if the House falls. 

“We've heard the gratitude from people on both sides of the aisle, but it was Democratic bills that got it done,” Whitmer said, referencing gun reform legislation as one example of the party’s legislative accomplishments. “Who's in your legislature matters and will impact your day to day.”

The Whitmer playbook

Whitmer characterized her 2024 strategy as similar to her successful gubernatorial campaigns: An 83-county approach that heavily stresses Democrats’ commitment to protecting reproductive rights and growing the economy while reducing costs for working families.

At the legislative level, Whitmer had offered endorsements, donations and social media shout-outs Democratic candidates say they’ve welcomed. 

Aiysha Farooqi, an Oakland County Democrat challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Kuhn, called Whitmer’s involvement “tremendously helpful” for her campaign. Many Democrats feature Whitmer endorsements prominently on their campaign websites. 

Whitmer largely ran on abortion rights during her 2022 reelection campaign, when she shared the ballot with Proposal 3 to enshrine abortion access in the Michigan Constitution. She won her race by nearly 10 percentage points amid record turnout for a gubernatorial election.

During that campaign, Whitmer said she encountered women who voted against her in the past but told her they would support her due to the immediacy of abortion rights issue, a scenario she believes will continue to play out in 2024. 

Highlighting the Legislature’s track record since Democrats won the majority and “telling the story of what we’ve been able to accomplish, how we’ve gotten more money back into people’s pockets” has also factored into her message to voters this year, Whitmer said. 

“There's still more good work to do,” she said. “That doesn't mean that everything is perfect. It's not, it never is. But we've made a lot of great strides.” 

In addition to in-person campaign stops in Michigan, Whitmer has maintained a national presence and has also shown a willingness to engage with young voters where they’re at by maintaining an active presence on TikTok and other social media. 

Her participation in popular online trends has occasionally backfired, however, most notably when a recent video of her feeding a Dorito chip to feminist podcaster Liz Plank sparked backlash from conservatives and Catholics (Whitmer later apologized). 

The governor’s visibility in the 2024 cycle could be crucial to Democrats up and down the ballot hoping to replicate her past electoral successes, particularly in politically competitive areas or in cities and suburbs where the party hopes to rack up the turnout score.

High stakes in the House 

There’s no guarantee Whitmer’s efforts on the campaign trail will translate into continued Democratic control of the state House, however. 

In 2022 — a year where statewide Democratic candidates cruised to victory — the difference between Democratic and Republican control of the House came down to a few hundred votes in politically competitive districts. 

Democrats in six districts covering Traverse City, the West Michigan lakeshore and Battle Creek, Macomb County and Downriver communities won by less than 2,000 votes, making those regions top targets for Republicans this time around.

Democrats are spending eye-popping amounts of cash to keep the majority, outspending Republican rivals at a near four-to-one ratio. As of mid-October, Democratic state House candidates had pumped $5.9 million into advertising and other expenses, compared to less than $1.6 million for Republicans. 

Thirteen state House races have surpassed $1 million in spending between candidate funding, caucus PACs and outside groups. Eight races have cost at least $2 million, and two are above $3 million, on track to smash previous spending records for state House candidates.

Despite the heavy investments locally, intense campaigning at the top of the ticket has sucked most of the air out of the room for state House candidates, said Adrienne Pickett, a Democratic consultant and founder of The Guerrilla Politic, a Detroit-based agency primarily focused on electing progressive women to state and local office. 

“It's really hard for some of these down ballot candidates to really break through because of all of the noise,” Pickett said, adding that state legislative campaigns are getting “drowned out” by extensive media buys for presidential and congressional candidates in competitive regions. 

In such a crowded environment, that’s meant Whitmer and other surrogates are focusing on supporting the entire ticket, with the hopes that that success extends to state House candidates, she continued: “Every single little bit helps.” 

Snyder, who recently completed a bus tour campaigning in a dozen competitive House districts, said part of his motivation to return to politics stemmed from seeing Democrats reject outright or move away from actions he took in office to put Michigan on a more competitive economic track. 

“Michigan's in decline again, and the decline is accelerating,” the former governor said. “There are a lot of factors, but one of the major contributors is what's going on in Lansing.” 

He’s bullish on the prospect of flipping the House, because Republican candidates have “good, strong track records” and are running on a positive agenda of improving education and economic outcomes, Snyder said.

Snyder — who endorsed President Joe Biden in 2020 — has exclusively focused on campaigning for state House candidates and is not weighing in on the presidential contest, a marked contrast from Whitmer.

“Just by talking about anything at the top, it's going to cause people to lose focus on the House races,” he told Bridge. “This is our backyard. This is our home. We can have a much larger impact.” 

Czuba, the pollster, said if Harris wins Michigan by at least two points and Democrats make significant gains in Oakland County, an area with multiple competitive races that continues to trend Democratic, House Democrats have a shot at maintaining the majority. 

But in an environment with such a close race between Trump and Harris, that result would be the surprise, not the expectation, he said. 

Democrats also hold a two-seat majority in the state Senate, which is not up for election this year, but they could lose a seat there too if state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet of Bay City wins her race for US House in the 8th Congressional District. 

Regardless, a Republican-majority House could significantly slow movement on Whitmer’s major policy priorities, a reality Democrats say makes the legislature all the more important. 

“Even if it’s a slight majority, she needs to have a Democratic House,” said former Democratic Gov. Jim Blanchard, who this week campaigned for Democratic candidates with Whitmer, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and former President Bill Clinton at various stops.