Michigan is evolving politically: Maps show how Trump won, state is changing

• President Trump will mark his first 100 days in office with a rally in Warren in Macomb County, a key to his 2024 victory in Michigan
• Michigan this month released precinct-level election results of the election
• The data reveals how Michigan is evolving politically and how Trump won the reliably purple state

President Donald Trump returns to Michigan Tuesday to celebrate 100 days in office, returning to one of his favorite — and crucial — stops in the seven swing states that helped reelect him.

He’s visiting Macomb County, ground zero of his Michigan win, where voters gave him a 68,000-vote margin in a state he won by just over 80,000 votes.

That county-level win, by far the largest pro-Trump in the state, was emblematic of his overall victory in the state: He found even more votes in a county that already was a big backer.

The Michigan Secretary of State this month released precinct-level election results from 2024. The smallest geopolitical unit in the state, precincts are composed of no more than 5,000 voters and contain the best clues yet about the partisan breakdown of a state that is reliably split politically.

Michigan has more than 4,400 precincts. Looking at an election-results map of the state, it would be tempting to think that Trump rolled to an easy victory over Democrat Kamala Harris and voters were reliably Republican.

Overall, Trump won Michigan by expanding the margins of his support throughout rural and suburban areas of the state. 

But the precinct-level data shows that, even in areas he won significantly, there are smaller political differences.

While Macomb County provided his margin of victory, he lost the city of Warren, a traditional Democratic stronghold that has become more even politically.

But in the precinct surrounding the Macomb County Community College campus — where he’ll speak on Tuesday — Trump beat Harris by 8 percentage points. 

The farther north in Warren, the more Republican the voters: Trump won one-third of the precincts in the city in 2024, compared to a fifth in 2020.

Related:

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• Michigan’s political geography is shifting. These interactive maps show how.

So too, did other parts of Michigan record subtle but important partisan changes. 

In Battle Creek in west Michigan, Trump lost to Harris by 6 percentage points. 

But he won 10 of the 21 precincts, up from seven in 2020. And in Oakland County, which was key to former President Joe Biden’s 2020 win over Trump, Bloomfield Township and Rochester Hills remained divided politically.

But even though Harris won Bloomfield Township, Trump won four of the 15 precincts, up from just two in 2020. 

In Rochester Hills to the northeast, he won 13 of the 32, along with the city total. He lost Rochester Hills in 2020 when he won 11 of the precincts.

The flips were not all in Trump’s favor: In Cascade Township in Kent County, Harris won six of 10 precincts in 2024, along with the township overall. 

That reversed Trump’s 2020 win when he won six of the 10 precincts.

Trump also had significant gains in areas with large Arab-American populations, winning Dearborn and Dearborn Heights outright and a majority of precincts in Hamtramck (which still favored Harris overall.)