Must-watch races in Michigan primary: Swing seats, U.S. Senate and more

• Michigan’s Aug. 6 primary to decide major party nominees for open U.S. Senate and U.S. House seats, along with new challengers
• Freshman U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar faces a competitive primary in Detroit
• Republicans seek to flip state House, end Democratic trifecta

Michigan voters will decide high-stakes primaries for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House and the state House on Tuesday, setting the stage for the fall general election that will also help decide the country's next president.

The Aug. 6 primary features Democratic and Republican candidates running to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow and U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, along with a host of other congressional, state House and local elections that will set the stage for competitive races this fall. 

Related: Michigan primary to shape ‘toss-up' race for U.S. Senate

While voters around the state have already begun casting absentee and early in–person ballots, Election Day polls open Tuesday at 7 a.m. Registered voters can vote the Republican side of the primary ballot or the Democratic side — but not both, as doing so will spoil the ballot. 

Winners of primary contests will advance to the Nov. 5 general election, which will also decide the presidential race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican former President Donald Trump and third-party candidates.

Here’s a look at some of the key races to watch in the Michigan primary.

Statewide: U.S. Senate 

Michigan voters will narrow the field for an open U.S. Senate seat down to one Democrat and one Republican vying to replace Stabenow, who has held the seat for more than two decades since winning election in 2000. 

U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is facing off against actor Hill Harper on the Democratic ticket, and on the Republican side, former U.S Rep. Mike Rogers, former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O’Donnell round out the field. Business executive Sandy Pensler, who also made the Republican ballot, recently suspended his campaign and endorsed Rogers. 

Slotkin and Rogers are the heavy favorites to advance to the general election, which is expected to be a toss up that draws national interest – and spending – as Democrats seek to retain a narrow voting majority. 

Kildee’s replacement

The pending departure of Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, who chose not to seek reelection, left up for grabs a political toss-up district that includes Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and Midland, where candidates from both parties are fighting for a chance to replace him. 

On the Democratic side, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and State Board of Education President Pam Pugh and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier are all seeking the nomination. 

McDonald Rivet is leading fundraising and has backing from Kildee, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and other prominent Democrats. But Pugh, the only Black candidate in the race, has earned support from the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus and the American Arab & Muslim Political Action Committee, among other groups. 

Paul Junge, a former prosecutor, congressional staffer, news anchor and external affairs officer with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, is running for Congress a third time after losing bids against Kildee in 2022 and Slotkin in 2020. In the Republican primary, he faces competition from business executive Mary Draves and trucking company owner Anthony Hudson.

The district has had a narrow Democratic lean in recent presidential election results. Among local voters, President Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 2 percentage points in 2020, while Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 1 percentage point in 2016.

Scholten’s challenger

U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten of Grand Rapids in 2022 became the first Democrat in 46 years to represent her city in Congress. Republicans want to win it back, sparking a contentious congressional primary in West Michigan.

Businessman Michael Markey and attorney Paul Hudson are hoping for the chance to flip the seat, but a spate of attacks has left each bruised.

Among other things, a super political action committee closely linked to Hudson has claimed in ads that Markey supported the “Green New Deal,” a Democratic policy platform that has drawn derision from conservatives. 

Markey, in turn, has accused Hudson of having ties to the communist party. He's also lambasted Hudson for not fervently backing presidential nominee Donald Trump and being soft on immigration and other issues.

While west Michigan had been a traditional conservative stronghold, the district has trended strongly Democratic in recent years. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump there by less than a percentage point in 2016, but President Joe Biden beat Trump by 8 points in 2020. 

James’ challenger

In the Macomb County-based 10th Congressional District, a competitive Democratic primary will determine who will challenge first-term lawmaker John James, R-Shelby Township. 

James won election by less than one percentage point in 2022 in what was the third closest congressional race in the country. 

Carl Marlinga, a former county judge and prosecutor, lost to James in that race but is challenging him with a second bid.

Several other candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, including gun safety advocate Emily Busch, financial planner Diane Young and Tiffany Tilley, a member of the state Board of Education. 

Showdown in Detroit

In Detroit’s 13th Congressional District, first-term U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar is fighting to retain his seat in a competitive Democratic primary against City Council member Mary Waters. 

Thanedar, an Indian American scientist and former state lawmaker, won election two years ago by spending $4 million of his own money and defeating eight Black candidates for the seat with 28% of the vote.

Waters, though, now has the backing of several prominent Wayne County officials, including Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, who have endorsed her and argue Thanedar isn’t doing enough for the city. 

Attorney Shakira Hawkins also filed to run in the primary, which is expected to decide the seat in the heavily Democratic district, where lone Republican candidate Martell Bivings will face a steep uphill climb. 

Another Democrat, former state Sen. Adam Hollier, tried running for the seat a second time, but he was disqualified from the ballot after Thanedar successfully challenged his nominating signatures. 

State House matchups 

Tuesday’s primary election also marks the opening salvo in races for all 110 Michigan House. Democrats are attempting to defend their narrow two-seat majority, while Republicans are attempting to flip the chamber and deny Whitmer a governing “trifecta” during her final two years in office. 

That determination will come after November’s general election. But voters in heavily Democratic or Republican-leaning districts will essentially choose their representatives, and dozens of House incumbents are facing primary challengers, including House Speaker Joe Tate, D-Detroit, and Minority Leader Matt Hall, R-Richland Township. 

Other Republican incumbents facing challenges include several ultra-conservative lawmakers — Reps. Neil Friske of Charlevoix, Josh Schriver of Oxford, Steve Carra of Three Rivers and Matt Maddock of Milford. Their opponents argue the incumbents have diminishing their districts’ influence in the Capitol.

On the Democratic side, incumbents in 11 of 16 Detroit or Detroit-adjacent districts face at least one primary challenger after a federal court ordered the state’s redistricting commission to draw new district boundaries.

One notable Democratic primary battle is brewing in the 14th District, where longtime Warren Mayor Jim Fouts is challenging first-term Rep. Mike McFall of Hazel Park. Elsewhere, incumbent Rep. Abraham Aiyash, D-Hamtramck, bowed out of running for re-election in the 7th District, leaving the primary in the heavily Democratic district open for three Detroit-based hopefuls. 

Rep. Mai Xiong, a Warren Democrat who was elected in April to fill a partial term, is now defending her seat in a competitive primary that includes Richard Steenland, a former Roseville lawmaker who was primaried out of a re-election bid in 2022 by Rep. Kim Edwards, an Eastpointe Democrat. 

Term limit changes have also drawn some former lawmakers out of the woodwork, with former Republican Reps. Tommy Brann, R-Wyoming, Gary Eisen, R-St. Clair Township, Nancy Jenkins-Arno, R-Clayton, Tim Kelly, R-Saginaw, and former Democratic Rep. LaTanya Garrett, D-Detroit, angling to return to the Capitol.

Ottawa impact, 2020 redux

There's a host of local Republican races worth watching, including in Ottawa County, where several members of the ultra-conservative Ottawa Impact group are facing GOP primary challenges from candidates endorsed by a rival group called Ottawa Integrity. 

In Antrim County, epicenter of 2020 election conspiracies, Clerk Sheryl Guy is reconsidering retirement if the primary is won by a candidate pushing hand counts. Barry County Sheriff Dar Leaf, who has spent years investigating the 2020 election without finding any crimes, is facing a primary challenge.

Meanwhile, two men acquitted in the 2020 plot to kidnap Whitmer are running for local office: Eric Molitor for Wexford County Sheriff and William Null for the Orangeville Township Board.