Is Michigan higher ed headed for a shakeout?

Richard Vedder is a higher ed heretic. At a time when virtually everyone is pushing for more kids to go to college, the director of the Center for College Affordability & Productivity argues the traditional college deal is not what it used to be. With college graduates plentiful and jobs scarce, a diploma from a less competitive school doesn’t much impress employers, Vedder argues.

And he predicts several low-ranked Michigan colleges won’t be around 10 years from now -- nor will hundreds of others across the country. 

The University of Michigan need not worry. Vedder considers U-M to be one of the two top public universities in the country. (The University of California, Berkeley, is the other.) That ranking is considerably higher than the No. 71 spot PayScale.com gives U-M (by in-state tuition) in its latest ranking of more than 800 colleges and universities by "return on investment." 

Nor should the green and white of Michigan State University (No. 200 in the PayScale study) be concerned, Vedder says. But he does think less well-known public schools, with dwindling state aid, little endowments and poor records of return on investment, may close their doors.

"I think we're giving (students) advice that will turn out to be painful for them," he explained.

Michael Boulus of the Presidents Council State Universities of Michigan says Vedder should look again.

"Contrary to Vedder’s comments, there is good data on the value of a college education. For instance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the unemployment rate in May for those with only a high school degree was 8.1 percent," Boulus said. "If you have only 'some college' or an associate degree, it was barely better, at 7.9 percent. But for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, it was 3.9 percent.

"And a recent report by the Brookings Institution looked at the value of a college degree over time. It found that, 'On average, the benefits of a four-year college degree are equivalent to an investment that returns 15.2 percent per year. This is more than double the average return to stock market investments since 1950, and more than five times the returns to corporate bonds, gold, long-term government bonds, or home ownership. From any investment perspective, college is a great deal.'"

A record 41,600 people applied for the fall term at the University of Michigan, which earned the highest mark in Michigan on PayScale's assessment of "return on investment."

U-M spokesman Rick Fitzgerald noted that U-M's graduation rate, over a six-year period, is 90 percent, well above the national average of 56 percent. Donations and government money for research also are rising, and prove confidence in a U-M degree, he said.

“And our follow-up surveys with graduates show that about 90 percent of graduates are in jobs or in graduate school a year out,” said Fitzgerald.

Up the road in East Lansing, MSU, too, received a record number of applications -- 30,374 -- for the fall 2012 semester.

“So even though there are those who say higher education may be pricing itself out or nearing its ceiling, when you look at admissions, we don’t see that here,” MSU spokesman Kent Cassella said.

Cassella said the typical MSU student graduates with about $20,000 in student loans. “They go out and they get good jobs and are able to make reasonable payments to pay back the $20,000 in debt,” he said. “You add that all together -- plus, you have a degree from this top research university -- and that’s a good indication of quality.”

Eastern Michigan University in Ypsilanti has focused its value-enhancing efforts on increasing financial aid and leading the state in tuition restraint, explained spokesman Geoff Larcom.

Bridge archive: Michigan can't fit college grads into job slots

"You shouldn't confuse the immediate job market horizon with what ultimately happens over the long span of a person's career," Larcom said. “As you advance in your career, you'll find your character, your resilience, your energy, your ability to interact with people and exercise leadership skills -- which are often highly developed in programs such as the humanities -- really come out."

Jo Collins Mathis is a veteran journalist who has written for numerous publications in Washtenaw and Wayne counties. She was an award-winning reporter and columnist with the Ann Arbor News for 15 years, and a features page editor and columnist at the Ypsilanti Press.