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Blue wall crumbled, Michigan is a swing state again. Maps show how it evolved

Left, 2008 map of the presidential map in Michigan; 2024 map of the presidential map in Michigan
  • A key part of the ‘blue wall’ of Democratic support, Michigan is once again politically unpredictable
  • Since 2000, 37 counties consistently go Republican, while only seven counties reliably supported Democrats
  • Once-Democratic counties like Bay and Arenac are now Republican strongholds, but no county has shifted from solid Republican to Democratic

The blue wall crumbled for Democrats this week, just two years after the party seized control of all branches of government in Michigan in 2022.

In giving President-elect Donald Trump his second victory in three tries, Michigan voters backed a Republican for the sixth time since 1976,  making it a certifiable swing state where the GOP has just a good a shot as Democrats.

Take 2008, for instance. President Barack Obama won 46 counties in the state, including eight in the Upper Peninsula and 13 counties in northern Michigan.

 

But on Tuesday, Democrats saw a more red-tinged map: Only two counties north of central Michigan backed Vice President Kamala Harris: Leelanau and Marquette. 

Trump won all but nine counties and flipped two, Saginaw and Muskegon.

Related:

Michigan voted for a Republican in 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 before backing President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, in 1992 and 1996. And it supported Democrats in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. 

Not all of Michigan has swung, however. 

Voters in 37 counties always backed Republican candidates in the last seven elections since 2000, while just seven counties always voted for a Democrat: Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, Kalamazoo, Genesee and Marquette.

Some counties that were once solidly Democratic are now solidly Republican, including Bay, Arenac, Isabella, Lake and Gogebic.

No county was solidly Republican and flipped to solidly Democratic since 1976.

The partisan map of Michigan has changed dramatically in the past two decades, with Democrats having a smaller geographic footprint. 

In northern Michigan, working-class Alpena County  backed Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008 and gave Republicans tiny victories in 2004 and 2012.

But since then, Republicans have gotten at least 62% of Alpena County votes. Trump got 64% on Tuesday. 

Below, scroll through the county-level results from 2000 through Tuesday. Some years may shock you.

2000 Michigan election results, showing Al Gore won the state with 51.3% of the vote
2004 Michigan presidential results, showing John Kerry won the state with 51.2% of vote
2008 Michigan presidential results, showing Barack Obama won the state with 57.4%
2012 Michigan presidential results, showing Barack Obama won with 54.2%
2016 Michigan presidential results, showing Donald Trump won the state with 47.5%
2020 Michigan presidential results, Joe Biden won the state with 50.6%
2024 Michigan presidential results, showing Donald Trump won the state with 49.8%

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