Crime fact check: Violence fell in ‘23, but still high in many Michigan cities

• Violent crime is down nationwide, but in many Michigan cities, it remains far higher than 2020
• Different data sets allow Trump to claim crime is ‘through the roof’ and Harris to claim it is ‘falling’
• Neither is wrong. But neither is 100% correct, since both data sets have limitations

In late August, former President Donald Trump came to Livingston County and, surrounded by uniformed law enforcement officers, asserted that crime is “out of control.”

“The Kamala crime wave that is going on at levels that nobody's ever seen before,” said Trump, referring to Vice President Kamala Harris. 

“It’s just insane. But you can't walk across the street to get a loaf of bread. You get shot, you get mugged, you get raped, you get whatever it may be.”

FBI crime stats released this week indicate that Trump is exaggerating: Nationwide, violent crime dropped 3% in 2023. Even so, conflicting data sets paint a far more nuanced portrait of crime, especially in Michigan.

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In 25 of Michigan’s largest municipalities, violent crime fell nearly 1% in 2023, but was still 3% higher than in 2019, according to FBI statistics.

Excluding Detroit, which has the highest crime rates, the difference is more stark — cities are down 1.4% over the year but still 12% above pre-pandemic levels.

Pick and choose

As it often is, crime is a top issue in this year’s presidential election. And the numbers vary so widely that they can provide ample evidence to support whatever political position you choose to exhort .

“If I’m a political candidate, I can kind of pick and choose what I want to use,” said Ron Stevenson, professor and director of debate at Wayne State University. 

Want to say crime is rising? 

Pick Farmington Hills (up 4% over the year, up 38% since 2019) or Southfield (8% for the year, 96% since before pandemic).

Want to say it’s falling? 

Look to Kalamazoo (down 19% for the year and 9% since 2019) or Clinton Township in Macomb County (down 27% for the year and 9% since 2019.)

And in some cases it is both: down over the past two years but still well above pre-pandemic levels. 

In Grand Rapids, the state’s second largest city, violent crime jumped 45% from 1,400 crimes in 2019 to 2,020 crimes the next year.

It has stayed at the higher level before falling 13% to 1,827 last year. Yet that is still 31% higher than 2019.

On the campaign trail, Trump routinely talks about crime waves in the United States, typically fueled by those who entered the country illegally. He says it’s up 43% since President Joe Biden took office.

This week, Harris told a different story, using the latest FBI statistics to say the homicide rate is 16% below the 2020 level and that violent crime is “near a 50-year low.”

“Americans are safer now than when we took office,” Harris said. 

Turns out, depending on how the data is sliced — and which data set is used — both opposing arguments can be correct.

‘It’s a real thing’

Part of the reason for the confusion is there is more than one way to measure crime.

The FBI data comes from police agencies based on crimes reported to police. It does not include unreported crime.

That’s important because another report, based on annual surveys of 150,000 households, shows that just 41.5% of violent crimes are reported.

The National Crime Victimization Survey, which the Trump campaign has repeatedly highlighted, shows that nonfatal personal crimes including rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and larceny rose 43% from 2020 to 2022, from 16.4 crimes per 1,000 households to 23.5.

It fell to 22.5 per 1,000 in 2023, the most recent year available. That is still a 37% increase from 2020 and 7% higher than 2019.

Matt Saxton, CEO and executive director of the Michigan Sheriff’s Association, said he believes crimes are increasingly unreported as response times drag on understaffed departments.

“The media and social media can say crime’s down or whatever,” said Saxton. “But to individuals where there’s a concern for crime in their community, it's a real thing.”

Ron Wiles, deputy director of the Michigan Association of Chiefs of Police, agreed, saying smaller crimes may go unreported because of the “significant calls for service with violent crime issues,” 

But the survey also has big limitations as well because it only produces national or regional estimates. 

In contrast, the FBI crime reports provide community-level crimes statistics, allowing residents to check on their own city.

The FBI data had been a consistent measure because it asked law enforcement to report crimes using the same definitions, said Paul Elam, a researcher for the Crime and Justice Research Alliance and a chief strategy officer at the Michigan Public Health Institute.

But in 2021, the FBI shifted to a more detailed reporting, but the country’s two largest departments, New York and Los Angeles, didn’t transition fast enough to be counted, according to a U.S. Department of Justice report.

“In some ways, you're not comparing apples to apples,” Saxton said.

At the ballot box, soundbites about crime statistics aren’t likely to sway many votes, but are instead subject to “confirmation bias.”

A voter who most recently had their car stolen is likely to believe that crime is “through the roof,” but the voter largely untouched by crime recently will be drawn by the “50-year low” data point, Wayne State’s Stevenson said.

The bottom line, according to Stevenson: crime data is useful to provide "talking points for the candidates to support their particular agenda. As far as a voter — not so much.”