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In razor-thin race, watch these Michigan regions in Harris, Trump race

Former President Donald Trump rally photo on left and Kamala Harris on the right
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — and their running mates — have made nearly 60 stops all across in Michigan. Some regions will play a big role in deciding who wins the state’s 15 electoral votes. (Bridge photos by Brett Farmer and Brayan Gutierrez)
  • Keys for Kamala Harris: maintain or grow base in Oakland, Kent and Wayne counties
  • Keys for Donald Trump: narrow margins in those areas and grow them in rural Michigan, Macomb 
  • Key questions: Black men and Trump, impact of Gaza and, as always, turnout

In what’s likely to be a close presidential election Tuesday, the path to victory in Michigan will likely come at the margins for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Michigan is one of seven swing states that could decide the election, and polls for months have shown a near deadlock. So both candidates are working parts of the state like a jigsaw puzzle, hoping to collect enough votes here to put them over the top.

Combined, the top four candidates have criss-crossed the state, closing in on 60 campaign stops. Their travels give a hint of how the race might be won, from vote-rich southeast Michigan and west Michigan to Traverse City, Holland, Big Rapids, Kalamazoo, Flint, Saginaw and even tiny Potterville in Eaton County.

Presidential visits

Democratic and Republican candidates for president have visited Michigan nearly 60 times this year. Click the circles to see who came, when and where. (Note: This map includes visits by President Joe Biden before he ended his reelection campaign but does include visits from surrogates.)

Major shifts may not be likely, but in a tight race, moving a few thousand votes — or keeping them home — could make a big difference. 

In 2020, when 5.5 million state voters cast ballots, President Joe Biden won by 154,000. In 2016, Trump won the state by 10,740 votes over 2016.

Here’s a look at how the puzzle may come together, keys to victory and scenarios to watch on Tuesday.

Oakland County

Big number: 108,000

What it is: Margin of victory for Biden in 2020, up 54,000 votes from Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Big question: Can Harris sustain, build on blue shift?

In 2020, Biden trounced Trump here, doubling the margin that Clinton got in 2016 (when she lost). It was the biggest shift of any county in the state.

To win next week, Democrats will need Oakland to continue to deliver a huge margin — especially if Trump, the Republican, rolls up even bigger wins in rural and blue-collar Michigan (more on that later.)

Sponsor

The well-to-do and highly educated Oakland County went even more Democratic in the 2022 gubernatorial election, when Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won it by 145,000 votes.

Democratic political consultant Mark Grebner, an Ingham County commissioner, expects continued support for Harris in the middle and upper-middle class suburbs with “nice trees, good services” like those in Oakland County.

“Those are all delivering Democratic margins,” Grebner said.

Rochester Hills and Bloomfield Township, for instance, went big for Biden in 2020 after Trump narrowly won Rochester Hills and narrowly lost Bloomfield Township in 2016. 

Birmingham favored Republican Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012, but has broken for Democrats since, with Clinton winning the city by 11 points in 2016 and Biden carrying it by 19 points.

 

Pollsters have found a growing link between Democratic support and college education. Nearly half of all adults 25 and older have a bachelor’s degree or better in Oakland County, one of the highest rates in the state.

Where there’s a higher density of college grads, there’s “higher support for Democrats,” said John Clark, a Western Michigan University political science professor. “We haven’t always seen that in Michigan politics and US politics.”

Republican political consultant Jamie Roe dismisses the idea that Oakland County will stay solidly Democratic. He said residents there, just like everywhere, were hit by the same higher prices that they keep complaining about to friends, family, neighbors and pollsters. And that will drive many toward Trump, he said.

Macomb County

Big number: 43.5%

What it is: Percent of 2020 vote for Biden

Big question: Can Trump rebuild his margins?

Make no mistake: Macomb County is Trump country, giving him a 48,300-vote margin in 2016. Biden narrowed the gap by more than 8,000 votes in 2020.

That makes the county, the state’s third-largest, key to Trump retaking the state and he plans to return for the second time this year on Friday.

Macomb County has been the focus of a tug-of-war between Democrats and Republicans for years, going back to Reagan Democrats — blue-collar union workers who backed the Republican in 1980 and 1984.

The richer, whiter northern part of the county is now solidly Republican, while southern suburbs like Warren, Roseville and Eastpointe are more diverse, working class and trending Democrat.

“I think (Trump) does better this year than 2016,” said Roe, who lives in Macomb County.

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Detroit

Big number: 228,047  

What it is: Democrats victory margin in 2020, almost identical to 2016 vote margin

Big question: Can Trump narrow the gap?

Detroit is one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic cities, so the outcome here isn’t in question. But narrowing the margins even a bit could help Trump.

In 2016, Clinton got 95% of the vote and Biden received 94% four years later. But the vote margin was almost unchanged: Clinton won by just over 227,000 votes and Biden by over 228,000.

But while much of the state was trending Democrat, Detroit was unchanged. 

Maintaining or growing turnout in Detroit is vital for Harris. In 2020, city turnout increased just 4% from 2016, compared to the 15% increase statewide.

There are worries for Harris in Detroit, including multiple polls showing increasing support among Black voters, particularly men, for Trump, who has campaigned in the Democratic-majority city multiple times. 

Another factor: The city and Wayne County are home to sizable Arab-American and Muslim populations. Many are angered by the Biden administration’s support for Israel during its war in Gaza. 

If they turn away from Democrats or stay home, it could be trouble for Harris. She may need a high turnout here as well: Detroit’s 50% turnout in 2020 was 20 percentage points behind the rest of the state.

Detroit votes for Trump grew 40% to 12,900 from 2016 to 2020, even as the city’s population fell. 

On Tuesday, if Trump only loses the city 85% to 15%, “it’s a real problem for Democrats,” Roe said.

 “They just cannot replace those votes.”

Sponsor

Rural Michigan

Big number: 344,226

What it is: Trump’s winning margin in his 49 most supportive counties in 2020

Big question: Will Trump get even bigger wins in rural Michigan?

Rural Michigan is also Trump country, but like Detroit, Harris could peel away some support if she shrinks margins. But both would have considerably more ground to cover.

Trump won big twice in rural Michigan, getting over 60% of the vote in 49 counties in 2020 — and over 70% in seven (Missaukee, Hillsdale, Osceola, Sanilac, Montmorency, Oscoda and Luce counties).

Many of those counties have few people — and voters. In those 49 counties, over half of the state’s 83 counties, there were only 1.1 million voters, just one-fifth of the total.

 

“The Trump side needs every one of those rural votes,” said Western’s Clark.

In 2016, the 47 counties that gave Trump at least 60% of the vote generated an overall 324,000-vote margin for him. 

Related:

That’s a lot but it’s spread over tens of thousands of square miles. And in 2020, when turnout surged statewide, the 49 counties with 60%+ support for him only increased his margin by roughly 20,000 votes, to 344,000.

That’s why spending precious campaign capital on a trip to northern Michigan makes sense, with Trump and Vance both going to Traverse City and Tim Walz, Harris’ vice presidential nominee, headed there this week.

 

West Michigan

Big number: 31,578

What it is: Swing toward Democrats in Kent County

Big question: Can Harris build support in western cities?

One of the bigger bellwethers of 2020 was Kent County. 

In 2016, Trump carried it by nearly 9,500 votes. In 2020, Biden won by 22,000 votes in a county that Republicans had long dominated.

The city of Grand Rapids has elected Democrats for years, but the leftward shift has grown in recent elections in the county and its neighbor, Ottawa County.

As recently as 2012, Republicans had carried Ottawa by 66% of the vote. But Trump’s margin fell there by 7,300 votes from 2016 to 2020, when he carried the county by 60%.

It’s a similar story farther north in west Michigan, where Trump’s margin between 2016 and 2020 shrunk in Grand Traverse, Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmet and Benzie counties.

The wealthier communities of Charlevoix, Petoskey and Harbor Springs were islands of blue in the region, backing Biden in 2020. Only Petoskey backed Clinton in 2016.

 

With national polls showing the race a dead heat, Clark said Michigan will be close too. Who wins will depend on who votes and which side musters their supporters to vote, be it via absentee ballot, early voting or on Election Day.

“It’s a turnout election,” Clark said. “It’s hard imagining any more of a turnout election than this one.”

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